Spend any time on Facebook and you'll be utterly convinced that crime in Ipswich is spiralling out of control and that our town is no longer safe. Our detailed analysis of local crime data paints a more nuanced picture.
Welcome to the first article in our Crime in Ipswich series.
In what we believe to be the most comprehensive analysis of Ipswich crime data ever conducted, we’ll break down the numbers, dispel the myths, and give you a clear picture of the state of crime in our town.
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A look at the absolute numbers
There were 50,813 crimes registered in Ipswich between May 2021, when data began, and June 2024. That's an average of:
1,337 crimes per month
309 crimes per week
44 crimes per day
1.8 crimes per hour
Crime in Ipswich has significantly reduced over the past two years
This will be a surprise to many, especially those that form their views primarily from social media, but it should be celebrated that the amount of crime in Ipswich has been consistently declining since reaching its peak in mid-2022.
Total number of crimes per month in Ipswich by year
A quick glance at the chart below and it's clear to see that there are fewer crimes in the first half of 2024 than in the previous two years.
What the data tells us: The number of registered crimes in the town has decreased year-on-year in 18 of the last 19 months:
2021: An average of 1,367 crimes per month
2022: An average of 1,467 crimes per month, an increase of 7.3% on 2021
2023: An average of 1,299 crimes per month, a decrease of 11.5% on 2022
2024: An average of 1,116 crimes per month, a decrease of 14.1% on 2023
However, data suggests that Ipswich underperforms versus the rest of the county
Total number of registered crimes per month in Ipswich compared to Suffolk
What the data tells us: Although Ipswich makes up 18.4% of Suffolk's population, it has consistently been responsible for 25% to 30% of the recorded crimes in the county. This disparity reached its highest point in May 2022, when Ipswich accounted for 30.1% of all registered crime in Suffolk.
This could be viewed as problematic, but it's worth noting that it's common for urban areas to have higher crime rates than rural areas.
So less crime than there was, but is there still too much?
So far, our analysis highlights a reduction in crime rates without discussing whether the current rates are still unacceptably high. After all, a decrease from a peak doesn't necessarily mean a problem doesn't exist.
To help us assess this, we've compared the number of registered crimes in Ipswich and Norwich for the first half of 2024.
Why? Because despite being a city that lacks a Premier League football club, Norwich is a very similar size to Ipswich, geographically close and considered by many to be a "nice place" to live, making it an ideal benchmark.
Number of registered crimes per 10,000 people in Ipswich versus Norwich
What the data tells us: Ipswich has seen an average of 1,116 crimes per month this year, which equates to 79.9 crimes per 10,000 people. Norwich, on the other hand, has had an average of 1,583 crimes per month, which equates to 110 crimes per 10,000 people.
For context: That means that Norwich has 1.4x more crime per capita than Ipswich, indicating that while we may lag slightly behind the rest of the county, it still outperforms a city that many consider a "nicer" place to live.
The bottom line
What the data tells us: There is less crime in Ipswich than there was four years ago, the amount of crime has significantly decreased over the last two years and we have less crime per capita than Norwich.
What it doesn't tell us: The article doesn't specify what types of crimes have decreased or explore other contributing factors to many people's perception of crime and safety in the town.
If the decrease is mainly in minor offenses, but serious crimes like violent assaults or burglaries are stable or increasing, the public’s perception of crime in Ipswich might still be justified. After all, a reduction in less impactful crimes doesn't necessarily equate to improved overall safety.
It also doesn't challenge the possibility that people are simply not reporting crime as much as they used to – a topic we're keen to explore in more detail.
What's next: Crime is a nuanced topic and there's lots of ways to look at the same data. In future articles in the series, we'll be helping you understand the geographical breakdown of crime in Ipswich, the prevalence of different types of crime and how that could impact perception, and the effectiveness of policing and the criminal justice system in the town.
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