Why it matters: Under Government plans announced by Angela Rayner before her resignation as Deputy Prime Minister on Thursday, 5 September, Suffolk's six county, district, and borough councils will cease to exist by May 2028 and be replaced by unitary authorities with more powers.
However, the Government has admitted that it did not conduct its own analysis.
The big picture: Instead, the Government based its cost estimates on a 2020 report commissioned by the County Council Network (CCN), which said £2.9bn could be saved over five years. However, the CCN has since revised its analysis and now shows no savings whatsoever for unitary councils serving populations of 300,000, instead costing more money.
CCN Chairman Cllr Tim Oliver said analysis by PwC showed that "if delivered at the right scale, local government reorganisation could unlock billions in efficiency savings to be reinvested in frontline services."
However, he warned: "We remain concerned over the potential costs of reorganisation where proposals seek to replace the two-tier system with multiple small unitary councils. CCN's recent report showed that splitting county areas into unitary councils with populations as small as 300,000 will create unsustainable new costs for local taxpayers."
What they're saying: Suffolk County Council, which has proposed a single unitary authority for the whole county, says the updated CCN report provides compelling evidence against smaller unitary authorities.
Richard Rout, the county's lead for council reform, said he was convinced the financial modelling the authority used was sound, but still urged the Government to carry out its own analysis.
"I sincerely hope that the Government doesn't take the figures outlined in the respective business cases on face-value and undertakes, and publishes, a detailed analysis and review before reaching a decision to consult on either proposal," he said.
"This is too big a decision to be based on spurious, or overly optimistic, financial modelling."
CCN Chairman Cllr Tim Oliver added that while reorganisation may be necessary, "it is absolutely essential that the government scrutinise and rigorously evaluate all proposals against their own statutory criteria, including ensuring new councils are the right size to achieve efficiencies, improve capacity and withstand financial shocks."
The other side: The district and borough councils, however, whose plans would separate the county into three unitary areas of approximately 300,000 people, stated that the change between the 2020 and 2024 CCN reports showed that the analysis was based on questionable data.
A spokesperson for the councils said this should act as a warning and stressed that their own separate analysis was based on truly independent modelling by KPMG.
They said: "Our plans for three local councils serving the needs of communities and businesses are based on Suffolk-specific evidence, are robust and have been produced following detailed work."
What's next: Final business cases are due to be submitted to the Government later this month, by 26 September, before a full public consultation can be carried out. Elections for a 'shadow council' will take place in May 2027, which will exist alongside the current structure until May 2028, when it will assume control.
The bottom line: Despite national uncertainty over the true costs of council reorganisation, Suffolk leaders remain confident their independent local analysis proves their respective merger plans will deliver genuine savings for taxpayers.
