Suffolk voters splinter as Reform's lead narrows in region, new polling data predicts

The findings come from a large-scale MRP poll conducted by Ipswich-based communications agency PLMR Genesis in partnership with Electoral Calculus, offering one of the most detailed pictures of how Suffolk's political mood is shifting.

A narrowing lead

Reform was polling at 32% in the East of England in April this year. By June, that figure had fallen to 26%. Over the same period, support for Labour rose from 14% to 21%, while the Conservatives climbed from 11% to 20%.

For the first time, the polling also tracked support for Restore Britain, a party now polling at 6% in the region. The scale of that figure, set against Reform's decline, suggests the new party is drawing votes away from Nigel Farage's party.

Tim Miller, managing director of PLMR Genesis, said the picture in the East of England reflected a wider national trend. "Interestingly in the East of England we're seeing support for Reform fall, with Labour and the Conservatives recovering ground," he said. "The emergence of Restore Britain appears to be squeezing Reform's vote share. However, no party is yet close to securing enough support to govern alone. This leaves the political outlook as open and unpredictable as it has been since the last election."

Suffolk's seat-by-seat picture

Translated into seats, the poll suggests that if an election were held tomorrow, Reform would lead in Suffolk with four seats, ahead of the Conservatives on three and Labour on one.

That would represent a significant reshaping of the county's political map, and underlines how fragmented the vote in Suffolk has become.

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, pointed to the national picture behind these local shifts. "For the first time, Restore Britain has been included in our polling, and they are cutting directly into Reform's vote share," he said. "That leaves Nigel Farage fighting on two fronts, with the Conservatives also recovering ground."

Fatigue with Westminster

The polling also points to widespread frustration with political instability more broadly. Over half (59%) of voters in the East of England said they thought it was a bad idea to keep changing prime minister so frequently, with just 7% saying it was a good thing.

The findings landed as Labour's leadership contest reached its final stages. Andy Burnham, the former Greater Manchester mayor, secured the backing of 322 of Labour's 403 MPs, putting him on course to become party leader unopposed and to take office as prime minister on 20 July, following Sir Keir Starmer's resignation.

Whether Burnham's arrival in Downing Street will ease that frustration remains to be seen. Miller said the message from voters was clear regardless of who held the top job. "One of the clearest messages from this polling is that voters in the region are tired of the political instability in Westminster," he said. "Whatever their political views, most people do not think regularly changing the person at the top is good for the country. They want the government to focus on delivering, rather than constantly resetting."

A country going nowhere fast

Nationally, the poll suggests no party is on course for a majority. Labour and Reform are tied on 22%, with the Conservatives close behind on 20%. In seats, that translates to Labour on 217, the Conservatives on 151 and Reform on 127 – all well short of the 326 needed to govern alone.

Even a coalition between Labour, the Liberal Democrats (on 72 seats) and the Greens (on 30 seats) would not be enough to reach a majority, according to the projection.

Baxter said the findings pointed towards continued deadlock at Westminster, whoever ends up leading the country. "Our figures show that if a general election were held now, it would result in a hung parliament where even a three-way coalition of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens would fall short of a majority," he said. "Burnham's return to Westminster has given Labour a boost, but only time will tell if he can persuade a pessimistic public that another spin of No 10's revolving door will deliver progress, or if it will just leave the country going in circles."

Understanding the numbers

The poll was conducted using a technique known as multi-level regression and post-stratification, or MRP. This method combines a large-scale survey with other data sources, such as census figures, to estimate how different groups of voters are likely to behave in specific local areas, including individual constituencies.

MRP has become a valuable tool in British politics because a general election is, in effect, hundreds of separate local contests happening at once. However, the method relies on a number of assumptions and estimates, and different models can produce different results even when using the same underlying data. As with all polling, the figures reflect a snapshot of opinion at the time it was collected. Voters can, and often do, change their minds as events unfold.

Fieldwork for this poll was carried out between 23 and 30 June 2026, with a sample size of more than 5,545 adults. The data is credited to Electoral Calculus & PLMR July 2026 MRP Poll.

The bottom line

Reform may still be ahead on paper in Suffolk, but the ground beneath it is shifting. When Burnham moves into Downing Street, he inherits not only a fractured national picture, but a Suffolk electorate that is still making up its mind. He must now convince our county that Labour can deliver before the next general election comes around.

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