Why it matters: The defection comes as the latest polling shows Reform on course to win 35 out of 43 seats in the East of England and form a majority government nationally – albeit with plenty of time for that to change before the next general election.
The details: John Howard, who chaired the Ipswich Conservative Association for a decade, applied to become the Tory candidate for mayor of Norfolk and Suffolk next year. After an interview with a panel including Sir Philip May, Theresa May’s husband, he was rejected from the shortlist.
Howard told The Independent the rejection was "the last straw" after spending five years "trying to defend the indefensible" as a Conservative member.
In a video interview, he said: "I gave it one last chance if you like, because I had a lot of support and a lot of people, and when you're a member of an association – I've been chairman of Ipswich and so on – you know you are a family, a slightly odd family with a lot of different characters in it, but you're a family and it's very hard to leave that family and you feel like you're letting people down. But you know, that was the last straw for me – not being put through to the last five."
A senior Conservative source questioned why a candidate with strong business credentials and local roots would be rejected.
Asked if his defection was down to ’sour grapes’ over his rejection, Howard said: "Well, they can say what they want. It doesn't really bother me at all. You know, everyone has detractors in life and you just have to brush them off.”
Howard also criticised the Conservative Party's direction on key policies, notably the Renters Reform Bill, which he claims "throws 2.44 million landlords under the bus.”
He added: "All the Reform policies I'm in line with, you know, they're the only ones who want to repeal the Rental [Reform Bill]. I've been telling you for years, which is madness."
On standing as Reform's mayoral candidate: “I'm passionate about Norfolk and Suffolk and if Reform want me to put my name forward for that role then I would certainly consider it because you know I'm passionate about Norfolk and Suffolk,” he said.
When pushed by this publication, Howard would not confirm but said: "I'm willing to help Reform locally in any way I can."
The bigger picture: The defection comes as new MRP polling from communications agency PLMR and Electoral Calculus reveals Reform UK would secure 377 seats nationally if a General Election were held tomorrow, up from just five in the last election. Polls suggest that in the East of England, Reform would win 35 out of 43 seats, reducing Labour to two seats and Conservatives to one.
The poll shows 52% of East of England voters cite cost of living and the economy as their main concern, followed by NHS waiting times at 45% and immigration at 42%.
What they're saying: Tim Miller, Managing Director of PLMR Genesis, said: "Just one year into this Labour Government we are already seeing a seismic political shift amongst voters in the East of England and a clear disillusionment with the two major parties."
The bottom line: Howard's defection is a hammer blow to local Conservatives, and his potential mayoral candidacy under the Reform banner could – if he’s selected – introduce a new political dynamic to Norfolk and Suffolk‘s mayoral elections next May.
