Reform UK surge threatens Labour seats across East of England

Why it matters: The findings suggest a potentially significant shift in the region's voting intentions, with the Conservatives predicted to regain ground and Labour facing possible losses if the current trends continue.

By the numbers: Based on current voting intentions:

• Conservatives: 26 seats (up from 18)
• Labour: 5 seats (down from 16)
• Reform UK: 8 seats (up from 3)
• Liberal Democrats: 3 seats (down from 5)
• Greens: 1 seat (no change)

The big picture: The Electoral Calculus & PLMR January 2025 MRP Poll shows widespread financial concerns could be influencing voting intentions across Suffolk, Essex, Norfolk and Cambridgeshire, though these may change before the next General Election, due no later than 15 August 2029.

What they're saying: The region appears to be undergoing a significant political transformation, according to Tim Miller, Managing Director of PLMR Genesis, the East of England team for PLMR.

Behind the numbers: More than half of respondents across the region expect their personal finances to worsen over the coming year, with positive outlooks rarely exceeding 12%.

The national picture: The survey of 5,743 British adults – the largest post-Election poll to date – shows current voting intentions creating an unprecedented three-way split:

• Reform UK: 24% of projected vote share
• Labour: 23%
• Conservatives: 23%

For context: Electoral Calculus has refined its methodology following polling discrepancies in the 2024 election. The new approach assumes those uncertain about voting are unlikely to do so, while individuals uncertain about their voting preference are assigned to their 2024 choice.

The bottom line: While financial pessimism appears to be driving significant changes in current voting intentions across the East of England, these patterns could shift substantially before voters go to the polls in the next general election.